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£100 Says 150 Million

Alright kids, get out your pencils and put on your thinking caps cause it's POP QUIZ TIME!!!!

Today's questions: How many people live in Mexico?

Now I'm not really the gambling type. In fact, if ever you find me in a casino there a good chance I'll be somewhere over by the nickel slots or standing mesmerized in frozen excitment staring at all of the flashing lights. BUT, if I absolutely had to I would probably bet there were over 150 million people in Mexico. Sounds reasonable right? You figure Mexico City is one of the largest in the world (if not THE), and it's a pretty big country. So let's say somewhere over 150 million people. I'll come back to that.

It's interesting that so many people think I'm British. Guessing it's probably because people in London are quite fashionable, attractive people. So, you know... naturally, people might guess I too am from London. Well today, I'm waliking the streets of London, looking good like a Londoner should and this distinguished older gentleman approaches me and asks if I know where Buckingham Palace is. Of course I don't, so I tell him. "Are you not from here?" He asks. "No, America." "Oh, you look British." (Don't I know it!)

This gentleman is Australian with an English accent, very pleasant and well spoken. Neither of us knowing where we are going, decide to walk there together so we can continue talking. He's from Sydney, a dealer of antiques and has a fair amount of money (you can tell and he told me so). He also told me last night he won £4,000 (=$8,000) playing roulette. We talk a little about politics, this and that, then he asks how many people live in America. I tell him about 300 million. He's surprised there's not more. Asks how many people in Canada, I say about 30 million.

Then that gambling mind starts turning. "I would have bet £200 there was 500 million people in the United States. How many people are there in Mexico?" Now America I know. Canada-easy. But Mexico? I tell him I have no idea, and I don't. So he says, "Think of a number you are 90% sure there wouldn't be any less than. Say if there was a guy standing here right now wanting to bet £1,000 on the population of Mexico, what would you say is a good bet." Hmmm.... "Maybe, 150 million?" He tells me he has no idea, and we walk a little further.

Then it gets personal. He (cleary a perceptive man) tells me how much he likes me, what a good, sharp kid I am. Then he lays out the bet. 2 to 1 odds. If I win he pays me £200, if he wins I pay him £100. Here's the bet: less than 150 million people in Mexico or 150 million to 300 million people in Mexico. I get to pick which one I want and if it's over 300 million people nobody wins because we should both be ashamed we are so far off. Then we will find a book store in the near vicinity and check. As I said before, I'm not much for gambling, but if the bet is obvious then I'd say it's hardly gambling, right? And here's a guy who has already stated that he likes me and wants to give me a good chance to win some money, but it can't just be a "sympathy bet".

The guys trying to do me a favor, the odds are good, and really what's £100? I mean that's like a day's budget in London. So I go for it. And naturally I pick the 150-300 million people. Those readers who are much more educated than I am know at this point that I am not very educated at all! I tell him I need to stop at an atm before we check so I can get some money in the VERY unlikely event that I lose. "Don't be silly. How could you lose this?"

Well I did. No, there are not 150-300 million people in Mexico. We found the bookstore, locate a Mexico travel book and BOOM! Right there in big bold letters 91 million population. I was not even close. We were both a little surprised. And for a little redemption I looked up Canada which I hit right on the head with 30 million. So we go outside, find an atm and the old guy waits a short distance away. I am a little disappointed but had decided it was worth the price just to hang out with this cool old gentleman, and besides I wouldn't have bet it if I hadn't been willing to part with it. What? It's true.

Catching up with him I count out the £100. He laughs, "You're an honest young man. I could tell when I met you." He was quite impressed with my integrity, etc. Then he asks me to write my name and address on a envelope he was carrying and tells me that by losing I actually made more money than if I would have won. He puts my £100 in the envelope and an additional undisclosed amount in there with it. Then he says he will send the money and his business card, so we can continue to stay in touch. We shake hands, part ways, and it turns out to be another great day in London.

Now in the event there are some 3rd graders reading this blog right now, I think you should know there is a very valuable life lesson to this story:

"The only thing worth gambling for is friendship."

Class dismissed.

posted by Travelin' D @ 3:29 AM